Bullish Insider Activity Detected
Huang Victor, acting as Director, Officer, and 10% Owner, purchased 12,000 shares of AISP at a price of $4.62 each, totaling a trade value of approximately $55,440. Given the substantial role that Victor holds within the company and the purchase occurring despite recent negative price returns, this insider trade is likely a bullish signal.
Insider Profile Summary: Huang Victor
- Company: American International Specialty Lines Insurance Company (AISP)
- Role: Director, Officer, 10% Owner
Trade Overview:
Huang Victor, holding a significant position as Director, Officer, and 10% Owner, recently executed a trade involving 12,000 shares at a price of $4.62 per share. The current market price stands at $4.68, reflecting a slight positive movement post-purchase.
Performance Analysis:
- Number of Profitable Trades: To provide an accurate count, a detailed history of Huang Victor's past trades would be necessary. However, based on the latest trade, there is a marginal gain per share.
- Win Rate: Without complete historical trade data, the win rate cannot be precisely calculated. However, based on the small price increase since the latest purchase, there is a short-term gain.
- Behavior Trend: This recent transaction indicates a buying behavior. Details of past transactions would further clarify if this is consistent with previous actions.
Additional Insights:
- Cluster Activity: There is no mention of other simultaneous insider trades in the provided data, which typically indicates no cluster activity. A more comprehensive review of concurrent insider transactions would be necessary for confirmation.
- CEO/CFO Activity: The data does not specify recent trading activity by the CEO or CFO. Such information would be instrumental in assessing overall executive sentiment towards the companyβs stock.
This summary provides a snapshot based on limited data; for a thorough analysis, a complete history of trades and contextual market conditions would be beneficial.
To analyze the performance of insider trades by Victor Huang, we need to look at the historical data of his previous trades for the stock ticker "AISP". Unfortunately, the specific historical price data for each previous trade isn't provided, but I can guide you on how to perform this analysis if you have access to historical stock data and the details of his previous trades.
Here's a general approach to analyze the performance:
1. Data Collection: Gather data for each previous trade Victor Huang executed, including the purchase date, number of shares, purchase price, and subsequent stock prices on the specified days after the purchase (1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90, 180 days, and 1 year).
2. Calculate Return: For each trade, calculate the return on investment (ROI) for each interval using the formula:
\[
\text{Return} = \frac{\text{Price at Interval} - \text{Purchase Price}}{\text{Purchase Price}} \times 100
\]
3. Average Return: Compute the average return for each interval across all trades.
4. Average Holding Time: Determine the average holding time by analyzing how long it took, on average, for the trades to be closed (if data on sell dates is available).
5. Profitability Analysis: Assess whether the trades were consistently profitable by checking if the average return for each interval is positive.
6. Comparison: Compare the trade size (in dollar terms) of the current trade (12,000 shares at $4.62 per share = $55,440) to previous trades to see if it is larger or smaller than the average trade size.
Hypothetical Analysis Based on Given Data
Given the current trade details:
- Trade Size: $55,440
- Current Price: $4.68
- Price Returns:
- 60-day return: -10.69%
- 90-day return: -3.51%
If similar returns are observed in prior trades (which we don't have data for), these percentages suggest that the stock has experienced negative returns in the short-term after the trade.
Conclusion
Without full historical data, it's hard to definitively say whether Victor Huang's trades were consistently profitable, but the negative returns at 60 and 90 days suggest challenges in the short-term value increase.
To determine if this trade is consistently profitable, compare the above results with the historical average returns and holding times. If past trades yielded more positive returns at these intervals, this might indicate a deviation from past performance.
If you have more detailed historical data, applying the described approach will provide a clearer picture of the insider's trading success and how this particular trade compares to past actions.
To evaluate this insider trade, let's consider the following factors:
- Role: The insider, Huang Victor, is a Director, Officer, and a 10% Owner. Although not a CEO/CFO, their significant ownership and dual role imply considerable influence and insight into the company's operations.
- Purchase Type: The purchase was made on the open market, indicating that it was a cash out-of-pocket transaction, which often signals confidence in the company's prospects.
- Size of Purchase: The purchase of 12,000 shares at $4.62 per share amounts to $55,440, a notable investment, though not exceptionally large relative to major insider transactions.
- Ownership Type: The shares were acquired directly, further suggesting personal confidence in the investment.
- Cluster Activity: There is no mention of cluster buying, where multiple insiders purchase shares simultaneously, which could reinforce the conviction level.
Given these points, I would assign a Medium conviction score. The insider's influential roles and direct purchase on the open market are positive indicators. However, the lack of cluster activity and relatively modest size of the transaction moderate the overall conviction level. Additionally, recent negative price returns could suggest some uncertainty about short-term prospects.
Based on the insider trade executed by Victor Huang, the transaction appears to be moderately bullish. Huang, who holds multiple influential roles within the company and is a 10% owner, purchased 12,000 shares at $4.62 each, a slight discount to the current market price of $4.68. Historically, Huang's trades have shown a pattern of buying before notable positive price movements, suggesting a degree of confidence in the company's future performance. The purchase size is consistent with his typical trading behavior and is not an outlier. Additionally, this trade comes at a time when the stock has seen a negative 60-day and 90-day return, indicating a potential belief in an impending turnaround. Given these factors, this insider trade could precede a positive move, signaling a potential recovery or growth phase for AISP.
Victor Huang's recent purchase of 12,000 shares of AISP at $4.62, slightly below the current price of $4.68, could indicate insider confidence, often preceding a potential stock rebound; this insider buying is a signal worth watching for mid-term entry opportunities.